{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "reportName": "Agentic Commerce Breakage Index",
  "reportQuarter": "2026-Q3",
  "publicReleaseLabel": "Summer 2026",
  "releaseState": "published",
  "generatedAt": "2026-07-28T03:13:13.533Z",
  "paths": {
    "canonical": "/resources/research/agentic-commerce-breakage-index",
    "methodology": "/resources/research/agentic-commerce-breakage-index/methodology",
    "aggregateCsv": "/resources/research/agentic-commerce-breakage-index/breakage-index-summer-2026.csv",
    "calibrationCsv": "/resources/research/agentic-commerce-breakage-index/breakage-index-summer-2026-calibration.csv",
    "reportJson": "/resources/research/agentic-commerce-breakage-index/report.json",
    "fullReportPdf": "/resources/research/agentic-commerce-breakage-index/breakage-index-summer-2026.pdf",
    "summaryPdf": "/resources/research/agentic-commerce-breakage-index/breakage-index-summer-2026-summary.pdf",
    "ogImage": "/api/og/breakage-index/default"
  },
  "headline": {
    "corpus": "external_top_500",
    "reportQuarter": "2026-Q3",
    "evaluableStoreN": 98,
    "storesWithAnyBreakage": 29,
    "storePercentage": 0.2959,
    "ciLow": 0.2146,
    "ciHigh": 0.3926
  },
  "accessFriction": {
    "scannedStoreN": 500,
    "storesWithAccessFriction": 210,
    "storePercentage": 0.42,
    "reportedSeparatelyFromBreakage": true
  },
  "metricQuality": [
    {
      "metric": "product_truth_mismatch",
      "label": "Wrong price or stock",
      "tier": "headline",
      "statusLabel": "Headline",
      "evaluableStoreN": 273,
      "storesWithConfirmedBreakage": 12,
      "storePercentage": 0.044,
      "ciLow": 0.0253,
      "ciHigh": 0.0752,
      "judgeAlpha": 0.9233218943033631,
      "calibrationAccuracy": 0.9899497487437185,
      "calibrationFlaggedN": 61,
      "calibrationNonfindingN": 139,
      "caveat": "Metric clears alpha, calibration accuracy, candidate mix, and false-negative gates."
    },
    {
      "metric": "policy_misstatement",
      "label": "Wrong return or shipping rule",
      "tier": "dropped",
      "statusLabel": "Not published in this report",
      "evaluableStoreN": null,
      "storesWithConfirmedBreakage": null,
      "storePercentage": null,
      "ciLow": null,
      "ciHigh": null,
      "judgeAlpha": 0.2703367385546728,
      "calibrationAccuracy": 0.5661375661375662,
      "calibrationFlaggedN": 100,
      "calibrationNonfindingN": 100,
      "caveat": "Judge alpha is below 0.667, so the metric is dropped for the quarter."
    },
    {
      "metric": "offer_ambiguity",
      "label": "Wrong promo",
      "tier": "dropped",
      "statusLabel": "Not published in this report",
      "evaluableStoreN": null,
      "storesWithConfirmedBreakage": null,
      "storePercentage": null,
      "ciLow": null,
      "ciHigh": null,
      "judgeAlpha": 0.18794123258920037,
      "calibrationAccuracy": 0.99,
      "calibrationFlaggedN": 5,
      "calibrationNonfindingN": 195,
      "caveat": "Judge alpha is below 0.667, so the metric is dropped for the quarter."
    },
    {
      "metric": "non_public_product_exposure",
      "label": "Surfaces a non-public product",
      "tier": "headline",
      "statusLabel": "Headline",
      "evaluableStoreN": 272,
      "storesWithConfirmedBreakage": 5,
      "storePercentage": 0.0184,
      "ciLow": 0.0079,
      "ciHigh": 0.0423,
      "judgeAlpha": 1,
      "calibrationAccuracy": 1,
      "calibrationFlaggedN": 16,
      "calibrationNonfindingN": 184,
      "caveat": "Metric clears alpha, calibration accuracy, candidate mix, and false-negative gates."
    },
    {
      "metric": "checkout_exception_risk",
      "label": "Wrong checkout path",
      "tier": "tentative",
      "statusLabel": "Tentative",
      "evaluableStoreN": 104,
      "storesWithConfirmedBreakage": 26,
      "storePercentage": 0.25,
      "ciLow": 0.1767,
      "ciHigh": 0.3411,
      "judgeAlpha": 0.7939404372525392,
      "calibrationAccuracy": 1,
      "calibrationFlaggedN": 100,
      "calibrationNonfindingN": 100,
      "caveat": "Judge alpha is below 0.8, so the metric can only publish as tentative."
    },
    {
      "metric": "competitor_in_branded_prompt",
      "label": "Competitor on your branded query",
      "tier": "dropped",
      "statusLabel": "Not published in this report",
      "evaluableStoreN": null,
      "storesWithConfirmedBreakage": null,
      "storePercentage": null,
      "ciLow": null,
      "ciHigh": null,
      "judgeAlpha": 0.982918789331735,
      "calibrationAccuracy": 0.675,
      "calibrationFlaggedN": 100,
      "calibrationNonfindingN": 100,
      "caveat": "Calibration accuracy is below the 95% publication threshold, so the metric is not published this quarter."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "reportRunId": "breakage-q3-2026-full-500-live-v1",
    "trancoListId": "VNGQN",
    "trancoSnapshotDate": "2026-05-21",
    "trancoSnapshotCreatedOn": "2026-05-21T22:00:01.570404+00:00",
    "includedStoreN": 500,
    "completedExternalStoreN": 500,
    "fullBundleEvaluableStoreN": 98,
    "storesWithAnyBreakage": 29,
    "scanWindowStartsAt": "2026-05-23T16:50:03.820Z",
    "scanWindowEndsAt": "2026-05-23T23:24:45.338Z",
    "promptModelIds": [
      "claude-sonnet-4-6",
      "gemini-2.5-flash",
      "gpt-4o-mini",
      "sonar-pro"
    ],
    "promptManifestVersion": "2026-Q3.v1",
    "promptManifestHash": "3af595138de35b2a5655e8a2234ebdeddc915a46be62b517e73048e89e382d40",
    "judge1ModelIds": [
      "gpt-4.1"
    ],
    "judge2ModelIds": [
      "claude-sonnet-4-6"
    ],
    "rubricVersions": [
      "branded_competitor_v1",
      "branded_competitor_v2",
      "checkout_exception_risk_v1",
      "checkout_exception_risk_v2",
      "non_public_product_exposure_v1",
      "non_public_product_exposure_v2",
      "offer_ambiguity_v1",
      "offer_ambiguity_v2",
      "policy_free_text_v1",
      "policy_free_text_v2",
      "product_attribute_v1",
      "product_attribute_v2"
    ],
    "methodologyVersion": "2026-summer.public-v1",
    "generatedAt": "2026-07-28T03:13:13.533Z"
  },
  "methodology": {
    "methodologyVersion": "2026-summer.public-v1",
    "limitations": [
      "No per-store names, raw URLs, or raw AI responses are published in public artifacts.",
      "External non-public product evidence is limited to public signals. Shopify draft status is counted only when connected-store evidence proves it.",
      "Checkout and offer probes are non-transactional. Store blocks, anti-bot walls, and inconclusive dry-runs are access-friction or limitation signals, not breakage.",
      "Metrics below 95% calibration accuracy are not published in this report. Metrics with judge alpha from 0.667 to 0.80 and calibration accuracy at least 95% are tentative. Headline metrics require alpha at least 0.80 and calibration accuracy at least 95%.",
      "Future quarterly runs depend on distribution pickup and detector reuse in Pro Scan, not backlinks alone."
    ],
    "versionHistory": [
      {
        "version": "2026-summer.c4-v1",
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "change": "Initial C4 methodology content model and renderer contract."
      },
      {
        "version": "2026-summer.public-v1",
        "date": "2026-05-24",
        "change": "Finalized public Summer 2026 release framing, added denominator-forward funnel disclosure, and blocked relisting on complete provenance."
      }
    ]
  }
}